This is the same chart, with some additional observations. It motivated me to do a similar chart for each of the other races groups and the young age group.
Notice that the black line, representing the change in percent of Blacks stopped & frisked each year increases steadily over time, from the left to right in this chart, showing and ever increasing focus on selecting Blacks for stop & frisks. Meanwhile, the red line, representing the change in percent of "Not Innocent" results (suspects arrested or given a summons) does not correspond well with the changes in the increase of Blacks selected for stop & frisks. In fact the black line steadily increases from 0% to +11.33% while the red line steadily decreases from 0% to -11.75%. The correlation between the two lines (ΔB% to Δ!I%) is -11.5% which means they are not well related to each other.
Notice in particularly, that in peak years the NYPD increased their focus on blacks (2006, 2009 and 2012) were also low years for "Not Innocent" results. Conversely, when the NYPD slackened their focus on blacks in 2007 and 2010 the "Not Innocent" results increased dramatically!
On the other hand, there is an overall positive correlation (+95.1%) between the numbers of blacks stopped & frisked and the numbers of "Not Innocent" results (arrests & summons.)
My interpretation of this is that blacks are adapting over time to stop & frisks, just as people in hostile occupied cities adapt to hostile military occupation. A black friend, on FaceBook, asked, "How can I adapt? I am always black I can't change that!" That is obviously true. In the short run, you probably can't change your neighborhood either. But you do have some choices you may be able to make:
- You can choose to dress in a hip-hop or 'gangsta' style, and attract police attention, or you can dress like a more normal, boring, citizen. (More on dress below.)
- You know the police are looking for marijuana, illicit drugs and contraband, so you can choose not to carry these with you on the street.
- You can avoid carrying tools that might be perceived as “burglary tools.”
- You know the police are looking for weapons, so you can avoid carrying a gun, knife or other weapon. (This is Mayor Bloomberg's stated goal – to reduce guns on the street.)
- You may believe that the police are more active at night, so, if you can, you arrange to go to work, or school and do important errands during the daylight.
- It's been reported that many people are afraid to go out at all, so they are arranging to stay in most of the time.
- Black & Hispanic trans-women have learned that if they carry more than five condoms in their purse, they will be arrested and accused of prostitution. So they carry fewer than five. (Heaven forbid you are coming home from a pharmacy with a CARTON of condoms! OMG!)
More comments on dress: All New Yorkers wear black a lot. This is kind of a New York style "thing." It may be more of a "thing" with black New Yorkers. I am a pet sitter and dog walker on Staten Island. I often drive at night and sometimes through black neighborhoods. My observations is that there are a lot of black New Yorkers who wear black (and other dark colors) at night. It makes them hard to see. (I wear bright & light colors in hopes that cars wont run me over as I walk dogs.) I wonder if black New Yorkers are wearing more black these days to avoid being seen by the police? It may be an interesting line of research to compare pedestrian knock downs, by automobiles, in black neighborhoods, at night, to the increasing number of stop & frisks since 2002. There may be hidden safety costs to stop & frisks.